researcher,affiliation,estimate_pct,estimate_label,year,source
Eliezer Yudkowsky,MIRI,99,~99%,2023,Time Magazine
Paul Christiano,ARC,50,~50%,2023,80000hours interview
Geoffrey Hinton,Google (former),30,10-50%,2023,MIT Tech Review
Yoshua Bengio,Mila,20,~20%,2024,UN AI Safety Summit
Toby Ord,FHI Oxford,10,~10%,2020,The Precipice
Scott Alexander,Astral Codex Ten,25,~25%,2023,ACX blog
Dario Amodei,Anthropic,17,10-25%,2024,Lex Fridman podcast
Metaculus community,,10,~10%,2025,metaculus.com
80000hours survey,,20,~20% median,2023,80000hours.org
Yann LeCun,Meta AI,0,~0%,2023,Various interviews
Andrew Ng,DeepLearning.AI,1,very low,2023,Various interviews
Sam Altman,OpenAI,5,low but non-zero,2023,Senate testimony