P(doom) Calculator: Assessing the Probability of AI’s Existential Risk

Welcome to the P(doom) Calculator page, your definitive tool for estimating the probability of catastrophic AI outcomes. Whether you are a researcher, policy maker, AI safety enthusiast, or just curious about humanity’s future, this calculator helps quantify the risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence. Using key risk parameters, it allows you to build a personalized scenario of AI doom probability with transparent inputs and clear results.

Table of Contents

• What is the P(doom) Calculator?

• How Does the P(doom) Calculator Work?

• Key Parameters Explained

• Example Calculation

• Why Use Our P(doom) Calculator?

• How to Use the P(doom) Calculator

• Frequently Asked Questions

What is the P(doom) Calculator?

The P(doom) Calculator is an interactive, science-based tool designed to estimate the probability that artificial intelligence development may cause catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. By incorporating key factors such as superintelligence emergence, alignment failure, malicious use, critical errors, and governance failures, the calculator helps users understand and quantify complex AI risk scenarios in a simple, intuitive way.

How Does the P(doom) Calculator Work?

This calculator requests your expert or personal estimates of five vital risk parameters, each expressed as a probability (percentage):

• Likelihood of Superintelligence: How probable is the emergence of a superintelligent AI?

• Alignment Failure Chance: What is the chance that such AI will not be aligned with human values or goals?

• Malicious Use Risk: How likely is deliberate harmful deployment of AI technologies?

• Critical Error Probability: What is the chance of catastrophic mistakes or bugs in AI systems?

• Governance and Regulation Failure: How likely is regulatory or oversight failure on a global scale?

The calculator multiplies these probabilities with a modeled formula to generate your estimated overall P(doom)—a transparent, quantitative risk score that reflects the compounded complexities of AI safety.

Key Parameters Explained

• Superintelligence Emergence: This factor considers if and when AI might surpass human intelligence. This milestone is key to assessing AI’s potential power.

• Alignment Failure: Even advanced AI can be risky if its goals diverge from humanity’s safety and wellbeing—this parameter quantifies that risk.

• Malicious Use: The risk that AI technologies may be used with destructive intent by malicious actors.

• Critical Errors: Failures, bugs, or unforeseen outcomes that might lead to disasters.

• Governance Failure: The probability that global regulatory frameworks will fail to prevent or mitigate AI risks effectively.

Example Calculation

Suppose you estimate: superintelligence emergence 50%, alignment failure 30%, malicious use 10%, critical errors 5%, and governance failure 20%. The P(doom) is roughly calculated as:

$$P(doom)=0.5\times 0.3\times (0.1+0.05)\times 0.2=0.0045(0.45\%)$$

This means a 0.45% estimated chance of AI causing existential catastrophe under your assumptions.

Why Use Our P(doom) Calculator?

• Quantify Complex Risks: Turn abstract, daunting AI safety concerns into understandable numbers.

• Personalize Your View: Adjust inputs to reflect your knowledge, beliefs, or new research findings.

• Transparent Formula: See how each factor contributes to the total risk.

• Educational Tool: Great for students, researchers, policymakers, and general AI enthusiasts.

• Stay Informed: Track how changing estimates affect overall risk.

How to Use the P(doom) Calculator

1. Enter Your Estimates: For each parameter, input your best guess in percentage form (0–100%).

2. Submit the Form: The calculator computes your overall P(doom) estimate instantly.

3. Review Your Result: Understand the combined risk and what factors contribute most.

4. Experiment: Adjust inputs to see how different scenarios impact risk.